Popular:
Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$23.05
→
Intrinsic$13.62
-41%
$7.17$13.62$25.89
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $23, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $7 → Bull $26. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $17 | $20 | $22 | $25 |
| 10% | $10 | $12 | $14 | $15 |
| 12% | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| 14% | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($26) offers 12% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($7) implies 69% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 17% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 41% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$320.22M
Year 2$345.84M
Year 3$373.50M
Year 4$403.38M
Year 5$435.66M
Terminal$6.41B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$296.50MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.