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Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$207.06
→
Intrinsic$215.95
+4%
$123.58$215.95$391.19
Market implies 24% growth for 5 years
GTLS appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $207, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (24%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $124 → Bull $391. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$283$311$342$374
10%$176$195$216$238
12%$116$131$146$163
14%$79$90$103$115

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($391) offers 89% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • 4% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (24%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($124) implies 40% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$477.75M
Year 2$597.19M
Year 3$746.48M
Year 4$933.11M
Year 5$1.17B
Terminal$17.16B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$382.20MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is GTLS stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

GTLS trades at $207.06 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $166.28, implying -19% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($287.77) suggests limited upside.

What is GTLS's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $382M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.43B net debt and dividing by 0.05B shares: Bear $83.78 | Base $166.28 | Bull $287.77. Current price $207.06 implies -19% to base case.

How is GTLS's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($11.19B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.