...

Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$19.22
→
Intrinsic$31.74
+65%
$19.65$31.74$54.69
Market implies 8% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests GTX could have 65% upside at 18% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $19, the market prices in 8% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (18%).
Range: Bear $20 → Bull $55. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →14%16%18%20%
8%$40$44$48$52
10%$26$29$32$35
12%$19$21$23$25
14%$14$15$17$19

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($55) offers 185% upside at 21% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (8%) ≤ historical CAGR (18%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($20) with 14% growth, 12% discount rate
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$373.29M
Year 2$439.57M
Year 3$517.63M
Year 4$609.54M
Year 5$717.78M
Terminal$10.56B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate17.8%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$317.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare GTX vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is GTX stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

GTX trades at $19.21 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $31.74, implying +75% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 17.8% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of GTX's future cash flows. The bear case ($19.11) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is GTX's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $317M, projected at 17.8% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $1.40B net debt and dividing by 0.22B shares: Bear $19.11 | Base $31.74 | Bull $50.05. Current price $19.21 implies +75% to base case.

How is GTX's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 17.8% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($8.51B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 26.9x.