...

Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$169.71
→
Intrinsic$103.42
-39%
$60.99$103.42$183.99
Market implies 31% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 20% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $170, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (31%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $61 → Bull $184. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$133$146$161$176
10%$84$94$103$114
12%$58$65$72$80
14%$41$46$52$58

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($184) offers 8% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($61) implies 64% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
  • Price reflects 31% growth expectations vs 20% historical — high bar to clear
  • Trading 39% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$559.20M
Year 2$671.04M
Year 3$805.25M
Year 4$966.30M
Year 5$1.16B
Terminal$17.06B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$466.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare H vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is H stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

H trades at $169.71 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $103.42, implying -38% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($170.92) suggests limited upside.

What is H's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $466M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.05B net debt and dividing by 0.10B shares: Bear $57.59 | Base $103.42 | Bull $170.92. Current price $169.71 implies -38% to base case.

How is H's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($13.64B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.