Haemonetics Corporation (HAE) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Haemonetics Corporation (HAE)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$74.00
Intrinsic$56.45
-24%
$32.73$56.45$101.50
Market implies 23% growth for 5 years
HAE trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $74, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (23%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $33 → Bull $101. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →13%15%17%19%
8%$72$80$88$97
10%$46$51$56$62
12%$31$35$39$43
14%$21$25$28$31

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($101) offers 37% upside at 21% growth, 9% discount

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($33) implies 56% downside at 14% growth, 12% discount
  • Price reflects 23% growth expectations vs 17% historical — high bar to clear
  • Trading 24% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$167.33M
Year 2$196.55M
Year 3$230.88M
Year 4$271.21M
Year 5$318.58M
Terminal$4.69B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate17.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$142.45MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is HAE stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

HAE trades at $74.00 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $56.45, implying -32% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 17.5% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($92.14) suggests limited upside.

What is HAE's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $142M, projected at 17.5% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $918M net debt and dividing by 0.05B shares: Bear $31.77 | Base $56.45 | Bull $92.14. Current price $74.00 implies -32% to base case.

How is HAE's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 17.5% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($3.78B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 26.5x.