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Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$14.28
→
Intrinsic$17.60
+23%
$5.50$17.60$40.58
Market implies 22% growth for 5 years
HE shows 23% potential upside using 25% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $14, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (22%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $5 → Bull $41. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $26 | $30 | $34 | $38 |
| 10% | $12 | $15 | $18 | $21 |
| 12% | $5 | $6 | $8 | $11 |
| 14% | $0 | $1 | $3 | $4 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($41) offers 184% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- 19% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (22%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($5) implies 62% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$170.32M
Year 2$212.90M
Year 3$266.12M
Year 4$332.65M
Year 5$415.81M
Terminal$6.12B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$136.25MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Regulated returns may affect assumptions. See FAQ below for full methodology.