Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG)
Valuation Overview•Is Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 85/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Elite compounder with fortress-level fundamentals across every core pillar.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
HG exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 36.5% ROIC). This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($913M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (28.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 28.2% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $708.1M | +15.3% | +28.7% | — | — | |
| EBITDA | $192.6M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $172.2M | +44.0% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.70 | +54.8% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $293.4M | +10.9% | +64.0% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 43.1% | 42.4% | 34.8% | 34.8% |
| Operating Margin | 28.2% | 24.0% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| Net Margin | 19.7% | 17.9% | 12.1% | 12.1% |
| FCF Margin | 28.8% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 22.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.13 | $1.64 | +45.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.69 | $1.65 | +139.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.71 | $1.32 | +85.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.01 | $1.55 | +53.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.04 | $0.47 | +1075.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.76 | $0.32 | -57.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.71 | $0.74 | +4.2% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.75 | $1.20 | +60.0% |
Total return is +60.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +35.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +22.4% | +13.1% | — |
| 1Y | +60.4% | +35.4% | +9.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +30.6% | +11.7% | +13.3% |
| 5YCAGR | +17.3% | +5.2% | +13.3% |
| 10YCAGR | +8.3% | -5.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) valuation, health, and returns.
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +170.0% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $84.73)
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $84.73 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $44.10 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $32.00 (implying +2.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 85/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 36.5%.
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 3.6% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +0.0% in the last 12 months.
Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +15.3% 1Y revenue growth and +54.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +28.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 9 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 82% of recent quarters with a 5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +2.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. include: -12.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.23x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.