Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)
Valuation Overview•Is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Moderate quality score of 55/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
HGV demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (9.6% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 12.1%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | +1.3% | +9.6% | +41.4% | +13.1% | |
| EBITDA | $226.0M | — | -3.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $66.0M | +72.3% | -38.7% | — | -7.4% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.79 | +93.5% | -32.8% | — | -6.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $122.0M | +25.7% | -29.3% | +36.8% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 56.8% | 48.2% | 42.9% | 36.0% |
| Operating Margin | 12.1% | 14.1% | 16.4% | 17.9% |
| Net Margin | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% |
| FCF Margin | 6.3% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.44 | $0.99 | +125.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.05 | $0.88 | -16.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.01 | $0.60 | -40.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.78 | $0.54 | -30.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.49 | $0.09 | -81.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.89 | $0.49 | -44.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.70 | $0.67 | -4.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.89 | $0.62 | -30.3% |
Total return is +34.0% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +9.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +15.9% | +6.6% | — |
| 1Y | +34.0% | +9.0% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +5.2% | -14.8% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +4.4% | -8.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +7.4% | -6.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) valuation, health, and returns.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Limited: Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +370.2% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $247.93)
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $247.93 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $40.63 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $52.00 (implying -1.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 55/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.5 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.0%.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 14.0% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -11.3% in the last 12 months.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +1.3% 1Y revenue growth and +93.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +9.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 16 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 25% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -1.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. include: -28.5% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.44x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.44x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.