...

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$83.42
→
Intrinsic$129.99
+56%
$59.74$129.99$263.37
Market implies 14% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests HHH could have 56% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $83, the market prices in 14% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $60 → Bull $263. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$178$201$224$250
10%$98$114$130$147
12%$54$66$78$91
14%$26$35$45$55

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($263) offers 216% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • 36% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (14%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($60) implies 28% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
Loading charts...

5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$453.00M
Year 2$543.60M
Year 3$652.32M
Year 4$782.79M
Year 5$939.35M
Terminal$13.82B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$377.50MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare HHH vs OStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is HHH stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

HHH trades at $83.42 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $129.99, implying +60% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of HHH's future cash flows. The bear case ($54.11) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is HHH's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $378M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $4.54B net debt and dividing by 0.05B shares: Bear $54.11 | Base $129.99 | Bull $241.73. Current price $83.42 implies +60% to base case.

How is HHH's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($11.05B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.