Popular:
Honeywell International Inc. (HON)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$215.02
→
Intrinsic$114.41
-47%
$66.05$114.41$210.67
Market implies 21% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $215, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (21%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $66 → Bull $211. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $147 | $164 | $181 | $201 |
| 10% | $91 | $103 | $114 | $127 |
| 12% | $62 | $70 | $79 | $88 |
| 14% | $44 | $50 | $57 | $64 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($211) with 10% growth, 8% discount rate
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($66) implies 69% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 21% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 47% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$5.33B
Year 2$5.75B
Year 3$6.21B
Year 4$6.71B
Year 5$7.25B
Terminal$114.86B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$4.93BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.