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IDEX Corporation (IEX)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$195.30
→
Intrinsic$126.27
-35%
$80.72$126.27$212.86
Market implies 18% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $195, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (18%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $81 → Bull $213. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $153 | $169 | $185 | $203 |
| 10% | $104 | $115 | $126 | $139 |
| 12% | $77 | $85 | $93 | $103 |
| 14% | $59 | $66 | $73 | $80 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($213) offers 9% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($81) implies 59% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 18% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 35% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$651.24M
Year 2$703.34M
Year 3$759.61M
Year 4$820.37M
Year 5$886.00M
Terminal$13.04B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$603.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.