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IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$241.28
→
Intrinsic$339.44
+41%
$209.44$339.44$586.10
Market implies 18% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests IQV could have 41% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $241, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (18%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $209 → Bull $586. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$433$474$517$562
10%$283$310$339$371
12%$199$220$242$265
14%$147$163$180$198

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($586) offers 143% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • 29% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (18%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($209) implies 13% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$2.64B
Year 2$3.30B
Year 3$4.13B
Year 4$5.16B
Year 5$6.45B
Terminal$94.93B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.11BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is IQV stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

IQV trades at $241.28, within 10% of our $269.54 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $153.42 (bear) to $440.53 (bull).

What is IQV's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $2.11B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $12.45B net debt and dividing by 0.18B shares: Bear $153.42 | Base $269.54 | Bull $440.53. Current price $241.28 implies +12% to base case.

How is IQV's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($61.89B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.