Johnson Controls International plc (JCI)
Valuation Overview•Is Johnson Controls International plc Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 55/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
JCI demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with highly explosive earnings growth (20.3% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 14.4%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.1B | +8.8% | +4.7% | +1.6% | +2.1% | |
| EBITDA | $1.2B | — | +11.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $967.0M | -13.3% | +15.6% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.61 | +77.9% | +20.3% | +15.6% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | +242.9% | +23.1% | +11.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 37.1% | 36.2% | 35.6% | 34.1% |
| Operating Margin | 14.4% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.2% |
| Net Margin | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% |
| FCF Margin | 14.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26Latest | $1.59 | $1.66 | +4.4% | ||
| Q3'26 | $1.30 | $1.42 | +9.2% | ||
| Q2'26 | $1.12 | $1.19 | +6.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.84 | $0.89 | +5.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.20 | $1.26 | +5.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.01 | $1.05 | +4.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.79 | $0.82 | +4.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.59 | $0.64 | +8.5% |
Total return is +11.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +2.1%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +11.4% | +3.8% | — |
| 1Y | +11.8% | +2.1% | +1.3% |
| 3YCAGR | +39.7% | +19.5% | +9.0% |
| 5YCAGR | +13.9% | +3.9% | +10.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +13.5% | +0.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 29.9x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) valuation, health, and returns.
Johnson Controls International plc is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -38.0% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $83.66)
Johnson Controls International plc has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $83.66 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $117.33 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $172.82 (implying +28.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Johnson Controls International plc displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 55/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.4 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 12.3%.
Johnson Controls International plc pays a 1.2% dividend yield, covered by a 34% payout ratio with 5 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.8% buyback yield.
Johnson Controls International plc's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +8.8% 1Y revenue growth and +77.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +4.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 47 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 11-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +28.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Johnson Controls International plc include: -17.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.16x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.