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Johnson Controls International plc (JCI)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$112.95
→
Intrinsic$41.96
-63%
$23.25$41.96$79.13
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $23 → Bull $79. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $79).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $57 | $63 | $69 | $76 |
| 10% | $34 | $38 | $42 | $46 |
| 12% | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 |
| 14% | $14 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($79) with 30% growth, 8% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($23) implies 79% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 63% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($79) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.21B
Year 2$1.51B
Year 3$1.88B
Year 4$2.36B
Year 5$2.94B
Terminal$46.67B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$965.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.