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Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$354.01
→
Intrinsic$495.30
+40%
$320.85$495.30$826.52
Market implies 12% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests JLL could have 40% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $354, the market prices in 12% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $321 → Bull $827. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$615$671$730$793
10%$417$455$495$539
12%$307$335$366$398
14%$237$260$283$309

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($827) offers 133% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • 29% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (12%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($321) implies 9% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$1.09B
Year 2$1.30B
Year 3$1.56B
Year 4$1.88B
Year 5$2.25B
Terminal$33.13B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$904.80MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is JLL stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

JLL trades at $354.01 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $495.30, implying +41% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of JLL's future cash flows. The bear case ($306.88) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is JLL's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $905M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $2.53B net debt and dividing by 0.05B shares: Bear $306.88 | Base $495.30 | Bull $772.78. Current price $354.01 implies +41% to base case.

How is JLL's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($26.49B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.