The St. Joe Company (JOE)
Valuation Overview•Is The St. Joe Company Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 79/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
JOE demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (26.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (18.2% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 28.5% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $99.0M | +27.5% | +26.7% | +26.2% | +17.3% | |
| EBITDA | $29.6M | — | +31.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $13.9M | +55.9% | +17.7% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.24 | +57.5% | +18.2% | +21.0% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $42.2M | +221.5% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 92.6% | 58.0% | 53.4% | 49.0% |
| Operating Margin | 28.5% | 25.2% | 27.1% | 22.0% |
| Net Margin | 21.6% | 20.3% | 23.4% | 27.2% |
| FCF Margin | 38.8% | 13.8% | -11.5% | -9.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | — | $0.24 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $0.52 | — | ||
| Q4'25 | — | $0.67 | — | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $0.51 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $0.30 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $0.32 | — | ||
| Q4'24 | — | $0.29 | — | ||
| Q3'24 | — | $0.42 | — |
Total return is +41.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +19.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +11.4% | +4.0% | — |
| 1Y | +41.4% | +19.2% | +1.3% |
| 3YCAGR | +15.2% | -5.2% | +3.7% |
| 5YCAGR | +9.5% | -2.1% | +5.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +14.7% | +1.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about The St. Joe Company (JOE) valuation, health, and returns.
The St. Joe Company is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -27.8% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $47.58)
The St. Joe Company has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $47.58 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $35.56. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
The St. Joe Company displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 79/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.3%.
The St. Joe Company pays a 0.9% dividend yield, covered by a 29% payout ratio with 5 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.1% buyback yield.
The St. Joe Company's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +27.5% 1Y revenue growth and +57.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +26.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 1 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 100% of recent quarters with a 8-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for The St. Joe Company include: -17.1% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.61x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.