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Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$214.50
→
Intrinsic$150.34
-30%
$100.80$150.34$244.52
Market implies 18% growth for 5 years
KEYS trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $215, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (18%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $101 → Bull $245. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $180 | $197 | $215 | $234 |
| 10% | $126 | $138 | $150 | $164 |
| 12% | $97 | $105 | $115 | $124 |
| 14% | $78 | $84 | $92 | $100 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($245) offers 14% upside at 11% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 9% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($101) implies 53% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 18% growth expectations vs 9% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 30% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.54B
Year 2$1.69B
Year 3$1.85B
Year 4$2.02B
Year 5$2.21B
Terminal$32.49B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate9.4%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.41BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.