...

Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$132.79
→
Intrinsic$131.36
-1%
$75.77$131.36$237.00
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
LAMR appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $133, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (12%).
Range: Bear $76 → Bull $237. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
Discount ↓Growth →8%10%12%14%
8%$166$185$205$226
10%$105$118$131$146
12%$71$81$91$102
14%$50$57$65$74

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($237) offers 78% upside at 15% growth, 9% discount
  • Conservative 12% growth assumption is achievable based on track record

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($76) implies 43% downside at 10% growth, 12% discount
Loading charts...

5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$927.78M
Year 2$1.04B
Year 3$1.17B
Year 4$1.32B
Year 5$1.49B
Terminal$21.85B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate12.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$824.83MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare LAMR vs OStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is LAMR stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

LAMR trades at $132.79, within 10% of our $131.36 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 12.5% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $78.19 (bear) to $205.32 (bull).

What is LAMR's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $825M, projected at 12.5% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $4.51B net debt and dividing by 0.10B shares: Bear $78.19 | Base $131.36 | Bull $205.32. Current price $132.79 implies +3% to base case.

How is LAMR's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 12.5% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($17.98B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 21.8x.