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Littelfuse, Inc. (LFUS) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Littelfuse, Inc. (LFUS)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$293.80
→
Intrinsic$218.92
-25%
$147.08$218.92$355.48
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
LFUS trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $294, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $147 → Bull $355. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →6%8%10%12%
8%$262$287$313$341
10%$184$201$219$238
12%$141$153$167$181
14%$113$123$134$145

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($355) offers 21% upside at 12% growth, 9% discount
  • Conservative 10% growth assumption is achievable based on track record

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($147) implies 50% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
  • Price reflects 17% growth expectations vs 10% historical — high bar to clear
  • Trading 25% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$320.12M
Year 2$351.25M
Year 3$385.40M
Year 4$422.88M
Year 5$464.01M
Terminal$6.83B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate9.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$291.74MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is LFUS stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

LFUS trades at $293.80 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $218.92, implying -21% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 9.7% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($307.35) suggests limited upside.

What is LFUS's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $292M, projected at 9.7% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $206M net debt and dividing by 0.03B shares: Bear $153.83 | Base $218.92 | Bull $307.35. Current price $293.80 implies -21% to base case.

How is LFUS's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 9.7% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($5.69B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 19.5x.