LivaNova PLC (LIVN) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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LivaNova PLC (LIVN)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$61.33

→

Intrinsic$68.37

+11%

$45.14$68.37$112.48

Market implies 17% growth for 5 years

Growth 20%

Discount 10%

Terminal 3%

LIVN appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.

At $61, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.

Range: Bear $45 → Bull $112. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.

Discount ↓Growth →	16%	18%	20%	22%
8%	$84	$92	$100	$108
10%	$58	$63	$68	$74
12%	$43	$47	$51	$55
14%	$34	$37	$40	$44

Bull Case

Bull case ($112) offers 83% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
10% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
Market-implied growth (17%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

Bear case ($45) implies 26% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount

Intrinsic Value vs Current Price

5-Year Cash Flow Projection

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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$163.12M

Year 2$195.74M

Year 3$234.89M

Year 4$281.87M

Year 5$338.24M

Terminal$4.98B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)

Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate

Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate

Base Free Cash Flow$135.93MTTM actual

Bear g×0.8, r+2%

Base Historical CAGR

Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%

ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is LIVN stock undervalued or overvalued?

🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

LIVN trades at $61.33, within 10% of our $68.37 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 20.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $43.28 (bear) to $105.32 (bull).

What is LIVN's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $136M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $248M net debt and dividing by 0.05B shares: Bear $43.28 | Base $68.37 | Bull $105.32. Current price $61.33 implies +7% to base case.

How is LIVN's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($3.98B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.

LivaNova PLC (LIVN) Intrinsic Value