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LKQ Corporation (LKQ)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$33.93
→
Intrinsic$36.79
+8%
$18.73$36.79$71.13
Market implies 7% growth for 5 years
LKQ appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $34, the market prices in only 7% growth — below historical 9%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $19 → Bull $71. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 5% | 7% | 9% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $48 | $54 | $60 | $67 |
| 10% | $28 | $32 | $37 | $42 |
| 12% | $17 | $20 | $24 | $27 |
| 14% | $10 | $13 | $15 | $18 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($71) offers 110% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- 8% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (7%) ≤ historical CAGR (9%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($19) implies 45% downside at 7% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$879.76M
Year 2$955.54M
Year 3$1.04B
Year 4$1.13B
Year 5$1.22B
Terminal$18.01B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$810.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.