Popular:
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$577.89
→
Intrinsic$353.80
-39%
$211.82$353.80$636.44
Market implies 18% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $578, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (18%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $212 → Bull $636. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $450 | $498 | $551 | $607 |
| 10% | $286 | $319 | $354 | $391 |
| 12% | $200 | $224 | $250 | $277 |
| 14% | $147 | $165 | $185 | $207 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($636) offers 10% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($212) implies 63% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 18% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 39% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$5.71B
Year 2$6.17B
Year 3$6.66B
Year 4$7.19B
Year 5$7.77B
Terminal$123.10B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$5.29BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.