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Logitech International S.A. (LOGI) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Logitech International S.A. (LOGI)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$96.60
→
Intrinsic$134.89
+40%
$94.96$134.89$210.74
Market implies 6% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests LOGI could have 40% upside at 15% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $97, the market prices in only 6% growth — below historical 15%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $95 → Bull $211. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →11%13%15%17%
8%$161$174$188$203
10%$116$125$135$145
12%$92$98$106$113
14%$76$81$87$93

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($211) offers 118% upside at 18% growth, 9% discount
  • 28% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (6%) ≤ historical CAGR (15%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($95) implies 2% downside at 12% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$906.95M
Year 2$1.05B
Year 3$1.21B
Year 4$1.39B
Year 5$1.60B
Terminal$23.61B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate15.3%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$786.43MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is LOGI stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

LOGI trades at $96.60 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $134.89, implying +37% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 15.3% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of LOGI's future cash flows. The bear case ($94.74) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is LOGI's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $786M, projected at 15.3% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-1.41B net debt and dividing by 0.15B shares: Bear $94.74 | Base $134.89 | Bull $192.02. Current price $96.60 implies +37% to base case.

How is LOGI's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 15.3% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($19.20B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 24.4x.