Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE)
Valuation Overview•Is Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 85/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: High-quality compounder, with growth as the only relative weakness.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
LOPE exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 32.5% ROIC). This is supported by a highly conservative balance sheet featuring strong liquidity and pristine Altman Z safety.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (10.4% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 38.0% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.00 | +7.1% | +6.7% | +5.6% | +3.6% | |
| EBITDA | $95.5M | — | +8.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $75.3M | -4.4% | +5.4% | — | +5.1% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.80 | -0.3% | +10.4% | +7.2% | +10.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $80.1M | -5.6% | +8.8% | -3.1% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | 52.5% | 53.7% | 52.2% |
| Operating Margin | 38.0% | 26.7% | 27.5% | 29.1% |
| Net Margin | 26.9% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 24.1% |
| FCF Margin | 31.8% | 22.2% | 23.7% | 21.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.78 | $2.86 | +2.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $3.19 | $3.21 | +0.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.78 | $1.78 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.37 | $1.53 | +11.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $2.51 | $2.57 | +2.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $2.93 | $2.95 | +0.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.47 | $1.42 | -3.4% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.10 | $1.27 | +15.5% |
Total return is -24.8% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -49.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -14.4% | -23.7% | — |
| 1Y | -24.8% | -49.8% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +11.7% | -7.6% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +10.2% | -2.5% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +13.0% | -0.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) valuation, health, and returns.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +19.2% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $168.73)
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $168.73 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $149.65 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $100.00 (implying -29.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 85/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 15.2 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 32.5%.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 6.9% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -4.3% in the last 12 months.
Grand Canyon Education, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +7.1% 1Y revenue growth and -0.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 18 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -29.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Grand Canyon Education, Inc. include: -35.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.20x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.