LuxExperience B.V. (LUXE) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

LuxExperience B.V. (LUXE)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$8.13

→

Intrinsic$0.00

-100%

$0.00$0.00$0.00

Growth 25%

Discount 10%

Terminal 3%

LUXE's FCF is temporarily suppressed due to reinvestment (actual margin: -9.6%). Valuation uses normalized cash flow (8% target margin) to reflect long-term earnings power.

Current price reflects expectations beyond normalized FCF — likely anticipating margin expansion, capital returns, or segment dominance.

Discount ↓Growth →	21%	23%	25%	27%
8%	$0	$0	$0	$0
10%	$0	$0	$0	$0
12%	$0	$0	$0	$0
14%	$0	$0	$0	$0

Bull Case

Bear Case

Trading 100% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)

Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate

Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate

Base Free Cash Flow$-34.50MNormalized (8% margin)

Bear g×0.8, r+2%

Base Historical CAGR

Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%

⚡ Reinvestor Mode: FCF margin is -9.6% (below 5% threshold). Using Revenue × 8% to reflect long-term earnings power.

ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses normalized FCF (Revenue × 8%) due to reinvestment-suppressed margins. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is LUXE stock undervalued or overvalued?

🟢 UNDERVALUED

LUXE trades at $8.13 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $42.03, implying +300% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of LUXE's future cash flows. The bear case ($28.89) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is LUXE's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $-35M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-385M net debt and dividing by 0.10B shares: Bear $28.89 | Base $42.03 | Bull $61.38. Current price $8.13 implies +300% to base case.

How is LUXE's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap). Note: FCF is normalized to 8% of revenue due to reinvestment-suppressed margins.

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($3.81B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation.

⚡ Reinvestor Mode: LUXE's FCF margin (-9.6%) is below 5% due to heavy reinvestment. We use normalized FCF (Revenue × 8% target margin) to reflect long-term earnings power rather than temporarily suppressed cash flows.

LuxExperience B.V. (LUXE) Intrinsic Value