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Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$60.61
→
Intrinsic$26.31
-57%
$13.67$26.31$50.32
Market implies 24% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $61, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (24%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $14 → Bull $50. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $34 | $38 | $43 | $48 |
| 10% | $20 | $23 | $26 | $30 |
| 12% | $13 | $15 | $17 | $20 |
| 14% | $8 | $10 | $11 | $13 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($50) with 10% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($14) implies 77% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 24% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 57% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.75B
Year 2$1.89B
Year 3$2.05B
Year 4$2.21B
Year 5$2.39B
Terminal$35.11B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.62BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.