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Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$57.30
→
Intrinsic$38.60
-33%
$21.80$38.60$72.04
Market implies 16% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $57, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (16%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $22 → Bull $72. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $50 | $56 | $62 | $69 |
| 10% | $31 | $34 | $39 | $43 |
| 12% | $20 | $23 | $26 | $30 |
| 14% | $14 | $16 | $19 | $21 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($72) offers 26% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($22) implies 62% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 16% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 33% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$3.80B
Year 2$4.11B
Year 3$4.44B
Year 4$4.79B
Year 5$5.18B
Terminal$82.03B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$3.52BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.