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Medtronic plc (MDT)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$96.42
→
Intrinsic$58.35
-39%
$32.53$58.35$109.75
Market implies 18% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $96, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (18%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $33 → Bull $110. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $76 | $85 | $94 | $104 |
| 10% | $46 | $52 | $58 | $65 |
| 12% | $30 | $35 | $39 | $44 |
| 14% | $21 | $24 | $28 | $32 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($110) offers 14% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($33) implies 66% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 18% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 39% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$5.60B
Year 2$6.05B
Year 3$6.53B
Year 4$7.05B
Year 5$7.62B
Terminal$120.72B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$5.18BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.