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MetLife, Inc. (MET) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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MetLife, Inc. (MET)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$77.90
→
Intrinsic$123.82
+59%
$83.84$123.82$203.41
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests MET could have 59% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $78, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $84 → Bull $203. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$151$165$179$195
10%$105$114$124$134
12%$81$87$95$102
14%$65$71$76$82

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($203) offers 161% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($84) with 6% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Net Income Projection

Year 1$4.78B
Year 2$5.16B
Year 3$5.58B
Year 4$6.02B
Year 5$6.50B
Terminal$103.05B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$4.43BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is MET stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

MET trades at $77.90 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $123.82, implying +53% upside. At a 9.5% WACC and 8.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of MET's future cash flows. The bear case ($88.69) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is MET's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $4.43B, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-1.35B net debt and dividing by 0.71B shares: Bear $88.69 | Base $123.82 | Bull $172.44. Current price $77.90 implies +53% to base case.

How is MET's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($86.70B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 19.6x.