...

Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Altria Group, Inc. (MO)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$61.58
→
Intrinsic$179.22
+191%
$115.66$179.22$305.49
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests MO could have 191% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $62, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $116 → Bull $305. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$231$251$271$294
10%$152$165$179$194
12%$111$120$131$141
14%$86$93$101$109

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($305) offers 396% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($116) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$10.76B
Year 2$13.45B
Year 3$16.82B
Year 4$21.02B
Year 5$26.28B
Terminal$416.42B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$8.61BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare MO vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MO stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

MO trades at $61.58 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $146.11, implying +165% upside. At a 9.5% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of MO's future cash flows. The bear case ($89.60) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is MO's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $8.61B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 9.5% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $21.80B net debt and dividing by 1.72B shares: Bear $89.60 | Base $146.11 | Bull $231.98. Current price $61.58 implies +165% to base case.

How is MO's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=9.5%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($272.82B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 31.7x.