Moog Inc. (MOG-A)
Valuation Overview•Is Moog Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Moderate quality score of 61/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
MOG-A demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is supported by a highly conservative balance sheet featuring strong liquidity and pristine Altman Z safety.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (8.3% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (14.9% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 11.1%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B | +7.0% | +8.3% | +6.0% | +4.3% | |
| EBITDA | $97.0M | — | +13.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $81.8M | +13.4% | +14.8% | — | +5.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.55 | +14.5% | +14.9% | +92.1% | +8.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $97.8M | +177.1% | +6.1% | -7.6% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 27.3% | 26.5% | 25.7% | 27.0% |
| Operating Margin | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% |
| Net Margin | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% |
| FCF Margin | 4.9% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.36 | $2.64 | +11.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.21 | $2.63 | +19.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.22 | $2.56 | +15.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $2.22 | $1.86 | -16.2% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.78 | $1.92 | +7.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.71 | $1.78 | +4.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.77 | $2.16 | +22.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.77 | $1.91 | +7.9% |
Total return is +126.9% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +104.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +61.2% | +53.8% | — |
| 1Y | +126.9% | +104.7% | +0.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +56.6% | +37.4% | +3.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +37.1% | +26.2% | +6.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +22.3% | +9.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Moog Inc. (MOG-A) valuation, health, and returns.
Moog Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -62.8% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $152.01)
Moog Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $152.01 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $490.27 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $131.00 (implying -67.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Moog Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 61/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 5.3 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 11.1%.
Moog Inc. pays a 0.3% dividend yield, covered by a 16% payout ratio with 5 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.3% buyback yield.
Moog Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +7.0% 1Y revenue growth and +14.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +8.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 11 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -67.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Moog Inc. include: -18.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.14x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.