Morgan Stanley (MS-PQ)
Valuation Overview•Is Morgan Stanley Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Fragile underlying quality score of 44/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral with steady expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
MS-PQ demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with robust earnings compounding (18.4% EPS 3Y CAGR). The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 19.5% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $33.1B | +11.5% | — | — | +12.3% | |
| EBITDA | $7.7B | — | +13.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $5.6B | +25.9% | +15.2% | — | +10.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.40 | +28.3% | +18.4% | +9.6% | +13.4% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$7.9B | +2295.2% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 58.0% | 56.5% | 69.4% | 76.9% |
| Operating Margin | 19.5% | 16.5% | 21.2% | 23.0% |
| Net Margin | 15.1% | 12.6% | 16.3% | 17.1% |
| FCF Margin | -0.9% | -1.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $3.02 | $3.43 | +13.6% | ||
| Q2'26 | — | $3.47 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $2.78 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $2.72 | — | ||
| Q4'25 | — | $2.89 | — | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $2.22 | — | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $2.70 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | — | $2.31 | — |
Total return is +4.9% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -15.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -0.6% | -8.0% | — |
| 1Y | +4.9% | -15.9% | +6.4% |
| 3YCAGR | +3.6% | -15.9% | +11.1% |
| 5YCAGR | +2.2% | -9.5% | +11.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +1.1% | -12.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Morgan Stanley (MS-PQ) valuation, health, and returns.
Morgan Stanley is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +554.2% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $166.81)
Morgan Stanley has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $166.81 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $174.77. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Morgan Stanley displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 44/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -0.3 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 3.1%.
Morgan Stanley pays a 16.2% dividend yield, covered by a 39% payout ratio with 2 years of growth, supplemented by a 14.3% buyback yield.
Morgan Stanley's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +11.5% 1Y revenue growth and +28.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Morgan Stanley include: -5.1% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.10x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.