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Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$139.17
→
Intrinsic$222.92
+60%
$126.00$222.92$406.79
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests MTN could have 60% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $139, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $126 → Bull $407. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$293$323$355$389
10%$181$201$223$246
12%$118$134$150$167
14%$79$91$104$117

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($407) offers 192% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • 38% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (17%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($126) implies 9% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$399.60M
Year 2$499.50M
Year 3$624.37M
Year 4$780.47M
Year 5$975.58M
Terminal$14.36B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$319.68MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is MTN stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

MTN trades at $139.17 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $170.81, implying +25% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of MTN's future cash flows. The bear case ($84.25) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is MTN's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $320M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.00B net debt and dividing by 0.04B shares: Bear $84.25 | Base $170.81 | Bull $298.27. Current price $139.17 implies +25% to base case.

How is MTN's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($9.36B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.