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New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$47.55
→
Intrinsic$98.17
+106%
$55.01$98.17$180.10
Market implies 8% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NJR could have 106% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $48, the market prices in 8% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $55 → Bull $180. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $128 | $142 | $156 | $172 |
| 10% | $79 | $88 | $98 | $109 |
| 12% | $52 | $59 | $66 | $74 |
| 14% | $34 | $40 | $46 | $52 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($180) offers 279% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (8%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($55) with 16% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$559.62M
Year 2$671.54M
Year 3$805.85M
Year 4$967.02M
Year 5$1.16B
Terminal$17.07B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$466.35MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Regulated returns may affect assumptions. See FAQ below for full methodology.