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Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$17.52
→
Intrinsic$28.53
+63%
$16.17$28.53$52.00
Market implies 11% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NMRK could have 63% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $18, the market prices in 11% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $16 → Bull $52. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$37$41$45$50
10%$23$26$29$32
12%$15$17$19$22
14%$10$12$14$15

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($52) offers 197% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • 39% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (11%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($16) implies 8% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$282.64M
Year 2$339.17M
Year 3$407.00M
Year 4$488.40M
Year 5$586.08M
Terminal$8.62B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$235.53MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is NMRK stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

NMRK trades at $17.52 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $28.53, implying +62% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of NMRK's future cash flows. The bear case ($15.18) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is NMRK's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $236M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $1.83B net debt and dividing by 0.18B shares: Bear $15.18 | Base $28.53 | Bull $48.19. Current price $17.52 implies +62% to base case.

How is NMRK's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($6.90B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.