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Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$11.91
→
Intrinsic$37.00
+211%
$21.82$37.00$65.86
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NOMD could have 211% upside at 13% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $12, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 13%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $22 → Bull $66. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →9%11%13%15%
8%$47$52$57$63
10%$30$33$37$41
12%$21$23$26$29
14%$15$17$19$21

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($66) offers 453% upside at 15% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (13%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($22) with 10% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$400.20M
Year 2$451.03M
Year 3$508.31M
Year 4$572.88M
Year 5$645.64M
Terminal$9.50B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate12.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$355.10MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is NOMD stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

NOMD trades at $11.91 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $37.00, implying +209% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 12.7% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of NOMD's future cash flows. The bear case ($22.42) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is NOMD's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $355M, projected at 12.7% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $1.77B net debt and dividing by 0.16B shares: Bear $22.42 | Base $37.00 | Bull $57.33. Current price $11.91 implies +209% to base case.

How is NOMD's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 12.7% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($7.81B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 22.0x.