Popular:
EnPro Industries, Inc. (NPO)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$241.74
→
Intrinsic$116.92
-52%
$72.93$116.92$200.50
Market implies 30% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 13% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $242, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (30%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $73 → Bull $201. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 9% | 11% | 13% | 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $145 | $159 | $175 | $192 |
| 10% | $96 | $106 | $117 | $128 |
| 12% | $69 | $77 | $85 | $93 |
| 14% | $52 | $58 | $64 | $71 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($201) with 16% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 13% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($73) implies 70% downside at 11% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 30% growth expectations vs 13% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 52% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$147.26M
Year 2$166.80M
Year 3$188.94M
Year 4$214.02M
Year 5$242.43M
Terminal$3.57B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate13.3%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$130.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.