...

NVR, Inc. (NVR) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

NVR, Inc. (NVR)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$7,623.01
→
Intrinsic$11,497.19
+51%
$7,995.56$11,497.19$18,147.01
Market implies 7% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests NVR could have 51% upside at 18% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $7623, the market prices in only 7% growth — below historical 18%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $7996 → Bull $18147. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →14%16%18%20%
8%$13847$14976$16183$17471
10%$9898$10671$11497$12378
12%$7711$8289$8905$9562
14%$6325$6780$7264$7780

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($18147) offers 138% upside at 22% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (7%) ≤ historical CAGR (18%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($7996) with 14% growth, 12% discount rate
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$1.59B
Year 2$1.87B
Year 3$2.21B
Year 4$2.61B
Year 5$3.08B
Terminal$45.36B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate18.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.35BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare NVR vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is NVR stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

NVR trades at $7623.01 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $11497.19, implying +59% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 18.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of NVR's future cash flows. The bear case ($7821.86) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is NVR's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.35B, projected at 18.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-1.64B net debt and dividing by 0.00B shares: Bear $7821.86 | Base $11497.19 | Bull $16834.65. Current price $7623.01 implies +59% to base case.

How is NVR's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 18.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($36.51B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 27.1x.