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The New York Times Company (NYT) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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The New York Times Company (NYT)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$71.57
→
Intrinsic$68.25
-5%
$46.80$68.25$108.97
Market implies 21% growth for 5 years
NYT appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $72, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (21%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $47 → Bull $109. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$83$90$97$105
10%$59$63$68$74
12%$45$49$52$56
14%$37$39$42$45

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($109) offers 52% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($47) implies 35% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$457.61M
Year 2$549.13M
Year 3$658.95M
Year 4$790.74M
Year 5$948.89M
Terminal$13.96B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$381.34MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is NYT stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

NYT trades at $71.57, within 10% of our $68.25 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 20.0% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $45.08 (bear) to $102.36 (bull).

What is NYT's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $381M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-152M net debt and dividing by 0.17B shares: Bear $45.08 | Base $68.25 | Bull $102.36. Current price $71.57 implies -2% to base case.

How is NYT's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($11.16B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.