...

Owens Corning (OC) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Owens Corning (OC)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$123.00
→
Intrinsic$296.81
+141%
$183.44$296.81$512.16
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests OC could have 141% upside at 16% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $123, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 16%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $183 → Bull $512. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →12%14%16%18%
8%$371$408$448$490
10%$244$270$297$326
12%$174$193$213$235
14%$130$144$160$177

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($512) offers 316% upside at 19% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (16%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($183) with 13% growth, 12% discount rate
Loading charts...

5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$1.45B
Year 2$1.68B
Year 3$1.95B
Year 4$2.26B
Year 5$2.63B
Terminal$38.66B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate16.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.25BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare OC vs AAPLStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is OC stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

OC trades at $123.00 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $296.81, implying +155% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 16.1% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of OC's future cash flows. The bear case ($181.35) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is OC's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.25B, projected at 16.1% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $5.25B net debt and dividing by 0.09B shares: Bear $181.35 | Base $296.81 | Bull $462.12. Current price $123.00 implies +155% to base case.

How is OC's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 16.1% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($31.34B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 25.2x.