Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)
Valuation Overview•Is Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Moderate quality score of 68/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though growth presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
ODFL demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins (highlighted by a massive 23.6% ROIC). This is supported by a highly conservative balance sheet featuring strong liquidity and pristine Altman Z safety.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-4.2% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 24.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | -5.5% | -4.2% | +6.5% | +6.3% | |
| EBITDA | $396.9M | — | -6.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $229.5M | -13.7% | -9.4% | — | +12.9% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.09 | -11.9% | -7.4% | +11.2% | +15.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $264.5M | +7.6% | +1.4% | +6.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 32.2% | 34.1% | 34.4% | 31.0% |
| Operating Margin | 24.8% | 26.4% | 27.0% | 23.1% |
| Net Margin | 18.6% | 20.1% | 20.4% | 17.2% |
| FCF Margin | 17.4% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 12.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.05 | $1.14 | +8.6% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.06 | $1.09 | +2.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.22 | $1.28 | +4.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.28 | $1.27 | -0.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.14 | $1.19 | +4.4% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.16 | $1.23 | +6.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.42 | $1.43 | +0.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.45 | $1.48 | +2.1% |
Total return is +42.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +17.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +39.2% | +29.9% | — |
| 1Y | +42.4% | +17.4% | +0.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +11.8% | -8.2% | +2.0% |
| 5YCAGR | +12.8% | -0.2% | +3.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +27.2% | +13.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) valuation, health, and returns.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -64.2% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $79.12)
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $79.12 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $213.84 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $217.50 (implying -1.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 68/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 24.3 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 23.6%.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. pays a 0.5% dividend yield, covered by a 23% payout ratio with 9 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.6% buyback yield.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved -5.5% 1Y revenue growth and -11.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -4.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 36 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -1.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. include: -26.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.21x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.