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On Holding AG (ONON) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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On Holding AG (ONON)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$46.00
→
Intrinsic$48.17
+5%
$33.34$48.17$76.31
Market implies 24% growth for 5 years
ONON appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $46, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (24%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $33 → Bull $76. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$59$63$68$74
10%$42$45$48$52
12%$32$35$37$40
14%$26$28$30$32

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($76) offers 66% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • 5% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (24%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($33) implies 28% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$557.00M
Year 2$696.25M
Year 3$870.31M
Year 4$1.09B
Year 5$1.36B
Terminal$20.01B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$445.60MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is ONON stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

ONON trades at $46.00 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $40.19, implying -18% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($59.70) suggests limited upside.

What is ONON's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $446M, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-577M net debt and dividing by 0.34B shares: Bear $26.95 | Base $40.19 | Bull $59.70. Current price $46.00 implies -18% to base case.

How is ONON's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($13.04B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.