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Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$17.38
→
Intrinsic$8.00
-54%
$6.92$8.00$10.05
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $7 → Bull $10. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $10).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $9 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| 10% | $8 | $8 | $8 | $8 |
| 12% | $7 | $7 | $7 | $7 |
| 14% | $6 | $7 | $7 | $7 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($10) with 30% growth, 9% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($7) implies 60% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 54% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($10) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Net Income Projection
Year 1$31.79M
Year 2$39.74M
Year 3$49.67M
Year 4$62.09M
Year 5$77.61M
Terminal$1.14B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$25.43MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.