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Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$88.29
→
Intrinsic$61.94
-30%
$36.72$61.94$109.80
Market implies 33% growth for 5 years
OTTR trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $88, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (33%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $37 → Bull $110. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $80 | $88 | $96 | $105 |
| 10% | $51 | $56 | $62 | $68 |
| 12% | $35 | $39 | $43 | $47 |
| 14% | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($110) offers 24% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($37) implies 58% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 33% growth expectations vs 25% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 30% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$117.60M
Year 2$147.00M
Year 3$183.75M
Year 4$229.69M
Year 5$287.11M
Terminal$4.22B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$94.08MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Regulated returns may affect assumptions. See FAQ below for full methodology.