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Outfront Media Inc. (OUT) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Outfront Media Inc. (OUT)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$24.44
→
Intrinsic$24.32
0%
$9.10$24.32$53.25
Market implies 10% growth for 5 years
OUT appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $24, the market prices in 10% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (10%).
Range: Bear $9 → Bull $53. Current price implies expectations near the base case.
Discount ↓Growth →6%8%10%12%
8%$34$39$44$50
10%$17$21$24$28
12%$8$10$13$16
14%$2$4$6$9

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($53) offers 118% upside at 12% growth, 9% discount
  • Conservative 10% growth assumption is achievable based on track record

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($9) implies 63% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$449.96M
Year 2$494.19M
Year 3$542.75M
Year 4$596.09M
Year 5$654.67M
Terminal$9.63B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate9.8%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$409.70MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is OUT stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

OUT trades at $24.44, within 10% of our $24.32 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 9.8% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $10.50 (bear) to $43.11 (bull).

What is OUT's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $410M, projected at 9.8% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.97B net debt and dividing by 0.17B shares: Bear $10.50 | Base $24.32 | Bull $43.11. Current price $24.44 implies +0% to base case.

How is OUT's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 9.8% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($8.02B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 19.6x.