Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)
Valuation Overview•Is Paychex, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 81/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: High-quality compounder, with solvency as the only relative weakness.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
PAYX exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 30.9% ROIC). This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 37.1% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6B | +5.6% | +6.5% | +6.6% | +7.4% | |
| EBITDA | $681.0M | — | +6.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $395.4M | -2.0% | +6.0% | — | +9.4% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.10 | -1.9% | +6.1% | +8.5% | +9.5% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $382.8M | +1.3% | +8.6% | +6.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 73.4% | 71.8% | 70.9% | 70.3% |
| Operating Margin | 37.1% | 40.5% | 39.5% | 38.6% |
| Net Margin | 26.4% | 31.0% | 30.0% | 28.4% |
| FCF Margin | 34.1% | 31.9% | 30.7% | 30.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $1.67 | $1.71 | +2.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.23 | $1.26 | +2.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.20 | $1.22 | +1.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.19 | $1.19 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.48 | $1.49 | +0.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.13 | $1.14 | +0.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.14 | $1.16 | +1.8% | ||
| Q2'24 | $1.10 | $1.12 | +1.8% |
Total return is -31.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -56.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -7.4% | -16.8% | — |
| 1Y | -31.7% | -56.7% | +2.9% |
| 3YCAGR | -0.6% | -20.3% | +10.8% |
| 5YCAGR | +2.7% | -10.4% | +17.8% |
| 10YCAGR | +8.7% | -4.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) valuation, health, and returns.
Paychex, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $109.05)
Paychex, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $109.05 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $74.20 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $105.60 (implying +7.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Paychex, Inc. displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 81/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.4 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 30.9%.
Paychex, Inc. pays a 4.1% dividend yield, covered by a 87% payout ratio with 15 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.3% buyback yield.
Paychex, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +5.6% 1Y revenue growth and -1.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 30 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +7.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Paychex, Inc. include: -43.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.25x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.