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PHINIA Inc. (PHIN) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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PHINIA Inc. (PHIN)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$70.12
→
Intrinsic$120.15
+71%
$77.89$120.15$200.39
Market implies 8% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests PHIN could have 71% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $70, the market prices in 8% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $78 → Bull $200. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$149$163$177$192
10%$101$110$120$131
12%$75$81$89$97
14%$58$63$69$75

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($200) offers 186% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (8%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($78) with 16% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$243.60M
Year 2$292.32M
Year 3$350.78M
Year 4$420.94M
Year 5$505.13M
Terminal$7.43B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$203.00MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is PHIN stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

PHIN trades at $70.12 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $120.15, implying +79% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of PHIN's future cash flows. The bear case ($74.51) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is PHIN's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $203M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $560M net debt and dividing by 0.04B shares: Bear $74.51 | Base $120.15 | Bull $187.37. Current price $70.12 implies +79% to base case.

How is PHIN's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($5.94B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.