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Post Holdings, Inc. (POST)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$98.10
→
Intrinsic$159.03
+62%
$71.51$159.03$325.09
Market implies 18% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests POST could have 62% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $98, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (18%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $72 → Bull $325. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $222 | $249 | $278 | $309 |
| 10% | $121 | $139 | $159 | $180 |
| 12% | $65 | $79 | $93 | $109 |
| 14% | $29 | $40 | $52 | $64 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($325) offers 231% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- 38% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (18%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($72) implies 27% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$610.13M
Year 2$762.66M
Year 3$953.32M
Year 4$1.19B
Year 5$1.49B
Terminal$21.92B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$488.10MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.