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Qiagen N.V. (QGEN) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Qiagen N.V. (QGEN)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$48.38
→
Intrinsic$64.41
+33%
$42.79$64.41$105.45
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests QGEN could have 33% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $48, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $43 → Bull $105. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →16%18%20%22%
8%$79$86$93$101
10%$55$59$64$70
12%$41$45$48$52
14%$32$35$38$41

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($105) offers 118% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
  • 25% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (13%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($43) implies 12% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$607.65M
Year 2$729.18M
Year 3$875.02M
Year 4$1.05B
Year 5$1.26B
Terminal$18.54B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$506.38MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is QGEN stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

QGEN trades at $48.38 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $64.41, implying +37% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 20.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of QGEN's future cash flows. The bear case ($41.06) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is QGEN's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $506M, projected at 20.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $752M net debt and dividing by 0.22B shares: Bear $41.06 | Base $64.41 | Bull $98.79. Current price $48.38 implies +37% to base case.

How is QGEN's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 20.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($14.82B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.