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Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. (RHP) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. (RHP)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$94.70
→
Intrinsic$123.69
+31%
$69.36$123.69$226.95
Market implies 8% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests RHP could have 31% upside at 12% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $95, the market prices in 8% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (12%).
Range: Bear $69 → Bull $227. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
Discount ↓Growth →8%10%12%14%
8%$158$176$195$216
10%$98$110$124$138
12%$65$74$84$95
14%$44$51$59$67

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($227) offers 140% upside at 15% growth, 9% discount
  • 23% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
  • Market-implied growth (8%) ≤ historical CAGR (12%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($69) implies 27% downside at 10% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$568.84M
Year 2$637.89M
Year 3$715.32M
Year 4$802.15M
Year 5$899.52M
Terminal$13.24B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate12.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$507.26MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is RHP stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

RHP trades at $94.70 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $123.69, implying +31% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 12.1% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of RHP's future cash flows. The bear case ($72.06) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is RHP's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $507M, projected at 12.1% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $3.04B net debt and dividing by 0.06B shares: Bear $72.06 | Base $123.69 | Bull $195.32. Current price $94.70 implies +31% to base case.

How is RHP's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 12.1% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($10.91B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 21.5x.