Popular:
Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$112.13
→
Intrinsic$70.20
-37%
$38.96$70.20$129.47
Market implies 35% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $112, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (35%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $39 → Bull $129. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $93 | $102 | $113 | $124 |
| 10% | $57 | $63 | $70 | $78 |
| 12% | $37 | $41 | $47 | $52 |
| 14% | $24 | $28 | $32 | $36 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($129) offers 15% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($39) implies 65% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 35% growth expectations vs 25% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 37% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$191.72M
Year 2$239.64M
Year 3$299.55M
Year 4$374.44M
Year 5$468.05M
Terminal$6.89B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$153.37MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.